WKB theory of epidemic fade-out in stochastic populations.
نویسندگان
چکیده
Stochastic effects may cause "fade-out" of an infectious disease in a population immediately after an epidemic outbreak. We evaluate the epidemic fade-out probability by a WKB method and find that the most probable path to extinction of the disease comes from an instantonlike orbit in the phase space of an underlying Hamiltonian flow.
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ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics
دوره 80 4 Pt 1 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2009